Rashid Hashmi
In one of the most incredible political comebacks in US history, former US President Donald Trump was heading with a lead on Wednesday on winning the race for the White House by almost beating his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in an election which almost cut the country in two halves. “A golden age of America…” In a victory speech, Trump said in West Palm Beach in Florida: ‘America has given us an unprecedented mandate.’ “We told Americans that this moment will help this country heal,” he said.
With Donald Trump’s second term being a possibility, Indians will be closely watching how trade, the stock market and H-1B visa regulations would take a hit. If the former president is elected, India’s future relations with the United States can be on a totally new track. Looking at the different areas that will be affected if Donald Trump came back to power in the US.
Trade
Under a Trump administration, India may find itself facing tariffs and forced to lower existing trade barriers as part of the administration’s US-centric trade policies. It could hurt Indian export sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals and textiles, for which a large portion of exports go to the US. Trump’s push for balanced trade may force India to revisit the strategies its adopting in trade and also ensure that there are doors to some opportunities for trade. Donald Trump will definitely consider strengthening the existing trade ties with India as he has said time and time again that Narendra Modi is his good friend while campaigning.”
Market research firm Nomura in September released a report on what a Trump 2.0 presidency might mean for the U.S. economy, geopolitics, financial markets, and the world more generally, with a particular eye on Asia. It also said Trump could be good for India, despite his hard line on trade and the dollar.
Two major areas of friction in India’s trade with the U.S. under a Trump presidency were outlined in the report. Second, trade surplus between India and U.S. may come under Trump 2.0 scrutiny. Second, the Trump administration can approach trading partners it views as artificially devaluing their currencies as if it is using its status as a currency centre for testing bully tactics and offer to withdraw services if services are not reciprocated. The report, however, shows that these short-term disruptions should be offset with America’s ‘China Plus One’ strategy which seeks to shift supply chains away from China to more favourable countries like India. Under Trump, this policy gains momentum.
Indian stock market:
Market specialist believe that Donald Trump’s win would have at least a reasonable impact on emerging markets, equities and currency, that too at the current juncture of the downfall. If Wall Street outperforms the rest of the world it could be due to growth prospects amid Trump’s protectionist agenda, allowing US growth to remain strong with tighter trade restrictions. This could also result in a sharp rise in yields – especially at the longer end – driving steepening bias; a very high global USD regime; crude oil Brent weakness and base metal weakness that mirror deterioration in Chinese growth and also a strong pick in gold prices as a safe haven asset reflecting stronger pick in Chinese growth.
H1-B visa rules:
In Trump’s first term, the H1B visa program was tried to be curtailed: Eligibility restrictions widened and applications come under scrutiny. In 2025, we could expect further tightening — there could be higher wage requirements for H1B holders, to make sure that in performing these positions, they’re not displacing Americans. The cap system assigned to some H-1B visas may be adjusted in favour of those with special skills or advanced degrees.
Comments are closed.