Cult loyalties, traditional vote bank, floating voters and rising discontent signal a nail-biting contest; MP Ruhullah’s silence echoes loudly
Soibugh (Budgam): It is 3:00 PM on Friday, and a group of youngsters begin chanting slogans from the top of a vehicle in the main square of Soibugh village in support of independent candidate Sameer Ahmad. “Why should we vote for outsiders? Why not for our local candidate?” shouts a youngster sitting besides the candidate, who hails from Soibugh.
As Sameer and his supporters head to another village for canvassing, BJP supporters take over the venue and begin shouting slogans mocking the National Conference (NC)-led government over its “unfulfilled” election promises-ranging from employment and electricity to Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s remarks on the installation of smart meters. “Naukri, Naukri-Ek Lakh Naukri! Unit, Unit -200 Soo Unit! Cylinder, Cylinder -12 Cylinder, Meter, Meter- Smart Meter!” the BJP workers chanted repeatedly.
While BJP workers were deriding NC for 2024 promises, Awami Ittehad Party leaders were waiting for their turn to hold a similar event at the same venue. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had already addressed the public at the same venue in the morning.
The main contest in this segment, which goes to polls on November 11, is between the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-both of which have fielded candidates from the Shia community. In this segment, with a total electorate of over 1.25 lakh voters, the Shia community accounts for 35000 to 40000 votes.
The NC has fielded Aga Mehmood, a former minister, while the PDP has nominated Aga Muntazir Mehdi, son of Agha Hassan.
Muntazir is the younger son of Aga Syed Hassan, who heads one faction of the Anjuman-e-Sharie Shiayan, while Mehmood is the uncle of Aga Syed Hadi, who leads another faction of the same organisation.
Their followers are respectively known as Mustafais and Muhammadis. The Mustafais are more in numbers than Muhammadis in this segment.
Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, who enjoys pan-Kashmir appeal due to his stance on Article 370, also draws his core support from Mustafais.
All eyes will be on Ruhullah Mehdi’s supporters especially as he remains at odds with the NC over several issues, including the rationalization of reservation.
Ruhullah, who has chosen to stay away from electioneering, has kept his cards close to his chest. His voters could shift towards the PDP, as both Muntazir and Ruhullah draw their core support from the same base.
Despite his broader appeal, the outcome in Budgam could impact Ruhullah’s political career.
Outside the Shia-dominated areas, voters are largely divided among the NC, independent candidates Jibran Dar and Muntazir Mohiuddin, Awami Ittehad Party-backed independent Nazir Ahmad Khan, and PDP’s Muntazir Mehdi. Besides them, other key candidates in the fray include Aga Syed Mohsin(BJP), Deeba Khan(Aam Admi Party), Mukthar Dar(Apni Party) and Sameer Ahmad ( independent).
An interaction with people by a team of reporters from news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO) revealed that the main contest is between the NC and the PDP, though Nazir Khan and Jibran Dar are expected to secure a significant share of votes. “NC has a loyal support base in the segment. Their workers will come out and vote for the party irrespective of who the candidate is. While there are many candidates in the fray, the main contest is between Aga Mehmood and Aga Muntazir,” a group of elders listening to Sameer Ahmad’s speech in Soibugh told KNO.
The NC’s biggest advantage remains its traditional support base in the segment-something other parties lack. However, disillusionment over its alleged failure to deliver on the 2024 electoral manifesto, and the rift with Ruhullah, could prove to be major setbacks.
On the other hand, Peoples Democratic Party, banking on Mustafais, lack an organizational network in the segment. Other than cult vote, it is mainly eyeing floating vote, which can play a decisive role in outcome of the election.
Our interactions indicated that the basic governance issues resonate more with voters than broader political narratives. “I have to pay Rs 2100 monthly electricity. Jibran Dar met me and assured help. I will vote for a new face,” says 40-year-old Farooq Ahmad Najar of Narkura, who sells masala bread at Naraspora, Budgam.
41-year-old Abdul Hamid of Wadwan, who describes himself as a victim of the reservation policy, says the villagers are divided on their voting preferences. “Candidates from the National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, Nazir Khan, and Jibran Dar will each get their share of votes from our village,” he says.
He adds that he is fed up with politics and remains undecided about whether he will vote. “I hold an MPhil and a PhD in Urdu. I had applied for the post of Urdu typist in the Department of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, but a candidate from a reserved category was selected. I can no longer apply for government jobs as I have crossed the age threshold,” he says.
He supports Ruhullah’s decision to stay away from electioneering. “What else should he have done when the government didn’t fulfill its promises? He is right in his decision,” he said.
The campaigns of major political players has revolved around BJP-links to electoral promises. While the National Conference has tried to target the PDP for its past ties with the BJP-a weapon they tested in every election since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls,the Peoples Democratic Party and other parties have mainly targeted the NC for “failing” to fulfill promises made to the electorate in the 2024 polls.
In this electoral battle, politicians like Imran Reza Ansari of Peoples Conference and Hakim Muhammad Yasin of the Peoples Democratic Front, who command sizeable influence in the constituency, could play a significant role in the outcome of the polls.
The proscribed Jamaat-e-Islami(JeI) also has impressive influence in a few pockets of the segment. The Justice and Development group, comprising former members of JeI, has also kept its cards close to its chest—(KNO)
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